trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | Yes | 38¢ | 50¢ | $100 | $130 | +$30 (+30%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 12¢ | 4¢ | $100 | $31 | −$69 (-69%) |
| Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $420 | $0 | −$420 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $20,433 | +$275,060 | +1346% |
| Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 16 | $123 | +$24 | +20% |
| Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $2,856 | +$8,589 | +301% |
| Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 16 | $533 | +$6,676 | +1251% |
| Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1,901 | +$16,326 | +859% |
| Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $350 | −$46 | -13% |
| Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1,257 | −$152 | -12% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $104 | −$7 | -7% |
| Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $434 | −$420 | -97% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $1,025 | −$36 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | +364.1% | +319.9% | 50% | 50% | +945.1% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +364.1% | +319.9% | 50% | 50% | +945.1% |
| all | 10 | +364.1% | +319.9% | 50% | 50% | +945.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +319.9% | 50% | +945.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +279.7% | 40% | +845.1% |
| 15% | +243.0% | 40% | +753.8% |
| 20% | +209.4% | 40% | +670.1% |