Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x6978…08d8 other 294 markets active 16h ago coverage 152d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$72,701 (+19%) realized +$70,161 · open +$2,540
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%163W / 156L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,320per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$9,623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,388
7 days−$9,198
14 days−$9,548
30 days−$8,888
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$6,644
world 16% −$10,138
crypto 13% +$6,222
politics 8% −$1,813
tech 5% −$1,613
sports 5% +$44,488
economics 4% +$37,200
finance 0% +$67
culture 0% +$100
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -85.3% -86.7% 6% 3% -92.8%
≤30d 40 -76.6% -78.9% 12% 8% -38.7%
≤90d 77 +43.8% +30.1% 35% 26% -8.8%
all 319 +53.2% +38.6% 51% 38% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.6% 38% +3.3%
10% +25.3% 33% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here +13.2% 26% -15.6%
20% +2.1% 23% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$698) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$986 vs −$671 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$9,623
Realized+$70,161
Unrealized+$2,540
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses163 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions18
Markets (closed)319 / 294
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$1,320
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 29¢ 71¢ $909 $2,254 +$1,345 (+148%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals No 61¢ 88¢ $976 $1,400 +$424 (+43%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 7¢ 5¢ $1,652 $1,354 −$298 (-18%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 10¢ 13¢ $987 $1,284 +$296 (+30%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 37¢ 83¢ $418 $938 +$520 (+124%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 66¢ $743 $750 +$7 (+1%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 54¢ $250 $540 +$290 (+116%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $445 $459 +$14 (+3%)
Eric Adams charged by December 31? No 62¢ 72¢ $157 $184 +$26 (+17%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 88¢ $128 $176 +$48 (+38%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 35¢ $195 $175 −$20 (-10%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 46¢ 80¢ $28 $48 +$20 (+73%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 65¢ 100¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+53%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+115%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 13¢ 34¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+165%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 65¢ 1¢ $150 $3 −$147 (-98%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 79¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $88 −$118 -134%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $45 −$99 -222%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$61 -2018%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jun 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $227 −$348 -153%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $449 −$462 -103%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $9 −$92 -1072%
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Cha Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $22 −$101 -465%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jun 26 $260 −$427 -164%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $390 −$450 -116%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $13 −$25 -189%
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $471 −$471 -100%
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chat Jun 26 $8 −$8 -103%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatb Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $143 −$432 -302%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair? Jun 26 $455 −$455 -100%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Jun 26 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Jun 26 $172 −$171 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $436 +$24 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2,788 +$433 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11,645 +$181 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $54 +$46 +86%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $40 +$6 +16%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 203.5 May 02 $48 −$48 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $2,440 −$2,440 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $156 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $61 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $347 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $78 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $23 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 17h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $2 17h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $109 17h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $3 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $8 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $152 19h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $484 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $245 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $184 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $2 5d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $170 5d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $276 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 23¢ $51 5d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $16 8d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $150 8d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $500 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,623.12 · official $9,623.13 (match) · 3500 history records