Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6978…9897 sports 177 markets active 5d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,123 (-2%) realized −$11,123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%94W / 83L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,408per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$5,572est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29,544
14 days−$23,587
30 days−$24,669
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$17,414
other 2% +$1,585
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -69.7% -72.6% 14% 14% -81.0%
≤30d 80 -10.8% -19.3% 49% 49% -16.0%
≤90d 165 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 52% -14.4%
all 177 -7.0% -15.9% 53% 53% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 53% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 51% -20.2%
15% -31.3% 46% -27.9%
20% -38.0% 37% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$4,389) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,232 vs −$2,718 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses94 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$5,572
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage90d
Avg bet$3,408
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $9,937 −$9,831 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,068 −$5,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9,936 −$9,841 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3,308 −$3,256 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5,767 −$2,287 -40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,345 −$2,300 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3,742 +$2,971 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13,379 +$7,276 +54%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9,874 +$3,530 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7,096 −$6,983 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $5,972 −$5,891 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,750 −$2,696 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $12,815 +$7,929 +62%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9,939 +$7,806 +78%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4,028 −$3,989 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $5,607 −$5,555 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $11,768 +$2,709 +23%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $3,292 +$1,821 +55%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $4,961 −$4,961 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $11,355 +$5,745 +51%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5,623 +$2,194 +39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $3,045 −$3,007 -99%
Game Handicap: TL (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5) Jun 01 $5,032 +$5,072 +101%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $6,611 −$6,496 -98%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 31 $4,471 −$2,830 -63%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $5,697 +$1,502 +26%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $1,974 +$941 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $3,585 −$3,540 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,300 +$3,692 +86%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 30 $2,031 +$2,275 +112%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 30 $4,042 +$2,106 +52%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $4,029 −$3,980 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $1,600 −$1,580 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 29 $6,532 +$3,112 +48%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 29 $1,981 −$1,896 -96%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2,553 −$2,500 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $767 −$750 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $5,081 +$5,777 +114%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $2,557 −$2,530 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2,111 +$1,445 +68%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $4,707 +$3,437 +73%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $3,960 +$1,725 +44%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $3,032 +$1,621 +54%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $1,653 −$1,625 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1,996 +$3,671 +184%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $3,034 +$5,006 +165%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $2,511 −$2,485 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $441 −$430 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $9,937 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5,068 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 68¢ $9,936 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 47¢ $3,308 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 51¢ $2,322 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 51¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 51¢ $1,041 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 34¢ $5,767 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $2,345 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3,742 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $17,562 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 52¢ $3,093 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $13,379 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 100¢ $13,404 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $9,874 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 46¢ $7,096 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1,972 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $4,000 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 33¢ $2,750 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $20,744 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $4,957 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $7,858 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $17,745 8d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $9,939 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 67¢ $4,028 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 69¢ $5,607 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $14,477 8d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $5,113 8d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 64¢ $3,292 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $43 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 513 history records