Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6977…b7ff sports 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%191W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$5
other 6% +$3
world 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
politics 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +34.6% +21.8% 80% 67% +22.0%
≤30d 51 +7.5% -2.7% 69% 53% -2.6%
≤90d 259 -7.4% -16.2% 54% 47% -12.5%
all 330 -3.1% -12.3% 58% 48% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 48% -8.8%
10% -20.7% 36% -17.5%
15% -28.4% 30% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses191 / 139
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions21
Markets (closed)330 / 351
History coverage158d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$2 +188%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8 −$3 -36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $15 +$2 +11%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $5 $0 +10%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $1 +$1 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 +$1 +21%
NHL Playoffs: Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Total Games O/U 5.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $3 +$3 +91%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $15 $0 +3%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $2 +$3 +123%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 $0 +46%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $1 20h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 40h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $1 3d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 3d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 3d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $0 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 61¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.72 · official $31.73 (match) · 1228 history records