Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6977…936f other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$212 (-1%) realized −$274 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate54%61W / 51L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$75
14 days+$90
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$150
crypto 24% +$11
finance 6% +$2
sports 3% −$479
world 2% +$5
economics 1% +$3
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -72.8% -75.4% 26% 3% -8.7%
≤30d 55 -46.2% -51.4% 53% 2% -9.1%
≤90d 112 -34.2% -40.4% 54% 6% -10.9%
all 112 -34.2% -40.4% 54% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 6% -10.9%
10% -46.1% 6% -19.4%
15% -51.3% 4% -27.2%
20% -56.1% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$2,184
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses61 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions52
Markets (closed)112 / 102
History coverage61d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $895 $893 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $431 $459 +$27 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $444 $447 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $158 $158 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+55%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $19 −$4 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $19 −$5 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $2 $18 +$17 (+1007%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $2 $13 +$12 (+695%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+545%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$9 (+527%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+503%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+299%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+167%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $606 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,133 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $215 +$106 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,991 +$45 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $698 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $489 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $771 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $798 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,589 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $807 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $796 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $798 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $799 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $794 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $798 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $297 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 29 $194 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $397 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 28 $413 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $596 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $158 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $433 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $610 14h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $895 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $446 26h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $606 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $153 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 33h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 33h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 33h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $321 35h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,206 36h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $215 37h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 37h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $699 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 40h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $145 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $115 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $698 47h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $698 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $695 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,133 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $539 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $592 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1,102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,183.78 · official $2,185.90 (match) · 420 history records