Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6975…5b52 weather 26 markets active 4d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-8%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$4
crypto 26% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -11.4% -19.8% 67% 33% -11.1%
≤30d 26 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 19% -19.0%
≤90d 26 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 19% -19.0%
all 26 -14.4% -22.5% 50% 19% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 19% -19.0%
10% -29.9% 19% -26.8%
15% -36.7% 12% -33.9%
20% -42.9% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 29 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $3 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 65¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? SELL No 82¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? BUY No 82¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? SELL No 73¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? SELL No 72¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 73¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 77¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? SELL No 76¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? SELL No 75¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? SELL No 58¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records