Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x696f…8f04 weather 248 markets active 1d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%78W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$2
14 days−$38
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +54.1% +39.4% 44% 44% -8.1%
≤30d 196 -7.3% -16.1% 30% 26% -27.9%
≤90d 248 +11.4% +0.8% 31% 28% -13.1%
all 248 +11.4% +0.8% 31% 28% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 28% -13.1%
10% -8.9% 25% -21.4%
15% -17.7% 24% -29.0%
20% -25.8% 22% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses78 / 170
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage71d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +254%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$21 +910%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 +$2 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$8 +93%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $11 +$8 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 +$9 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 09 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $3 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 08 $10 +$9 +94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 08 $9 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $8 +$7 +82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 08 $22 −$16 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 08 $6 −$3 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$12 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$16 +163%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 07 $4 +$10 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 07 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 07 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 07 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 05 $6 −$2 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $24 46h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 33¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 30¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1361 history records