Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x696c…dbe6 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$504
7 days+$504
14 days+$504
30 days+$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$16
sports 28% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +66.2% +50.4% 100% 100% +40.7%
≤30d 8 +66.2% +50.4% 100% 100% +40.7%
≤90d 28 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 54% -7.0%
all 58 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 53% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 53% -9.0%
10% -21.6% 50% -17.7%
15% -29.2% 47% -25.6%
20% -36.1% 34% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$65 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage117d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$60 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$74 +146%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $202 +$88 +44%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF América: O/U 2.5 May 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $3,000 +$100 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $1,169 −$361 -31%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $170 +$30 +18%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $157 +$69 +44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $91 −$4 -5%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $158 +$42 +26%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $144 +$96 +66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $20 +$30 +150%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $30 +$20 +66%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $33 +$6 +18%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $68 +$88 +130%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $57 +$51 +89%
Will CF América win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $140 −$140 -100%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $122 +$75 +61%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $25 +$34 +138%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $25 +$37 +148%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $60 +$47 +78%
Club Santos Laguna vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $70 +$41 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $94 +$40 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $304 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $102 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $51 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $20 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 6d
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF América: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 37d
Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) BUY Pumas de la UNAM 19¢ $41 37d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 48d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 8¢ $786 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $300 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $100 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? SELL Yes 31¢ $350 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.88 · official $302.88 (match) · 251 history records