Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x696a…1fec other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 55L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$46
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$60
other 20% −$9
politics 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
sports 0% +$13
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 27 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 32 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 0% -9.1%
all 91 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.0%
10% -18.5% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage475d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $61 +$6 +10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $177 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $162 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $108 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,209 +$28 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $157 +$5 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $277 +$12 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $630 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $430 −$3 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $228 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $139 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $264 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $137 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $286 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $317 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $154 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $149 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $164 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $164 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $972 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $1,066 +$2 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $944 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,038 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 24 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $18 $0 +2%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $19 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $61 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $177 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $177 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $22 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $139 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $124 35h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $7 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $12 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $15 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $6 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $59 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $77 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 33¢ $103 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $108 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $162 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $148 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $40 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 355 history records