Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x696a…823b sports 126 markets active 5d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+1%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%87W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$130
14 days+$85
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$21
crypto 3% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 57% -18.4%
≤30d 126 +7.3% -2.9% 69% 52% -9.4%
≤90d 126 +7.3% -2.9% 69% 52% -9.4%
all 126 +7.3% -2.9% 69% 52% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 52% -9.4%
10% -12.2% 29% -18.1%
15% -20.7% 14% -26.0%
20% -28.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$21 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses87 / 39
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage13d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $147 +$16 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $70 +$11 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $38 +$27 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $69 +$17 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $80 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $103 +$27 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $35 +$28 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $39 +$5 +12%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $30 +$16 +53%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $33 +$10 +30%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $72 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $60 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $38 +$8 +21%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $59 +$19 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $59 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $70 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $62 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $85 +$14 +16%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $36 +$9 +25%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $205 +$1 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $68 +$7 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $29 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $74 +$5 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $75 +$7 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $71 +$22 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $80 +$9 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $67 +$9 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $58 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $47 +$14 +30%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $47 +$7 +15%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $34 +$12 +36%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $25 +$12 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $40 +$20 +50%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $39 −$3 -8%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $32 +$11 +34%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $55 +$7 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $145 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 90¢ $147 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $81 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 86¢ $70 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 73¢ $29 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $38 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $52 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $86 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 96¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 80¢ $69 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 43¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $86 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $61 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 93¢ $80 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 84¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $132 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 75¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 86¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 99¢ $130 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 78¢ $103 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $103 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 97¢ $100 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 55¢ $35 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 11¢ $8 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $44 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 89¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records