Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x696a…9b6a crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+23%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 40% -15.1%
≤30d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 40% -15.1%
≤90d 10 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 40% -15.1%
all 10 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 40% -15.1%
10% -12.2% 40% -23.3%
15% -20.7% 30% -30.7%
20% -28.5% 30% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records