Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x696a…e23a sports 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43,208 (+4%) realized +$41,829 · open +$1,379
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate63%381W / 223L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,965per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$2,331est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$234
world 35% +$12,425
politics 8% −$26
other 6% −$260
finance 1% +$46
economics 0% +$60
tech 0% +$13
crypto 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -49.8% -54.6% 32% 10% -24.1%
≤30d 272 -33.9% -40.2% 47% 16% -14.7%
≤90d 604 -9.2% -17.8% 63% 21% -11.2%
all 604 -9.2% -17.8% 63% 21% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 21% -11.2%
10% -25.7% 16% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -32.9% 13% -27.4%
20% -39.4% 11% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$384 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$9,087
Realized+$41,829
Unrealized+$1,379
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses381 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2,331
Open positions14
Markets (closed)604 / 499
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$1,965
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,987 $2,068 +$81 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 14¢ 28¢ $1,037 $2,061 +$1,024 (+99%)
Kameron Misner: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 94¢ 98¢ $1,692 $1,755 +$63 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 3¢ 7¢ $276 $613 +$338 (+123%)
Eric Wagaman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 89¢ 98¢ $491 $537 +$47 (+10%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Under 96¢ 97¢ $480 $485 +$5 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 90¢ 97¢ $450 $483 +$33 (+7%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 19¢ 19¢ $190 $190 +$0 (+0%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $173 $175 +$2 (+1%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $230 $128 −$103 (-45%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $144 $51 −$93 (-64%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $40 $9 −$31 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 205 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran strike on US military by January 31? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Neemias Queta: Points O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ben Saraf: Points O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Kentucky visit? Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $240 −$237 -98%
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,265 −$1,265 -100%
Derrick White: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Jarace Walker: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $666 −$666 -100%
Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during the Detroit speech on Tu Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Kyler Murray play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $715 −$715 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026? Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jun 17 $317 −$275 -87%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 17 $1,197 −$1,197 -100%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Army" or "Navy" during Women's History Month event? Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Fraud" 2+ times during the Detroit speech on Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-2.5) vs Opelka (+2.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$357 +713%
Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Mikes Evans play for Los Angeles Rams in 2026-27? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during his Rocky Mount visit? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 29) Jun 17 $709 −$709 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 20.5 Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" during National Agriculture Day events Jun 17 $375 −$375 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during Women's History Month event? Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
P.J. Washington: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump say "Drone" during Taoiseach events? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 9+ times during the Detroit speech o Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Weed rescheduled by March 31? Jun 17 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference? Jun 17 $346 −$346 -100%
Vít Krejčí: Points O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $459 −$459 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Heriberto Hernández: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $481 15m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 19¢ $176 20m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 19¢ $1 25m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 19¢ $2 26m
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 19¢ $11 26m
Eric Wagaman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 89¢ $446 36m
Eric Wagaman: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 89¢ $46 36m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 94¢ $1,987 1h
Kameron Misner: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $471 1h
Kameron Misner: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $271 1h
Kameron Misner: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $471 1h
Kameron Misner: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $482 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $129 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 72¢ $3,341 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $147 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 14¢ $1,037 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 71¢ $3,294 4h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 7h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 9h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 9h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $53 10h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 11h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 11h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 11h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 11h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 11h
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 92¢ $1,650 13h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $345 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,087.12 · official $9,033.53 (match) · 3500 history records