Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6968…8600 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-12%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$56
tech 21% −$207
other 15% −$110
crypto 7% −$22
economics 1% −$6
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 50% 25% -33.4%
≤30d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 50% 25% -33.4%
≤90d 8 -36.9% -42.9% 50% 25% -33.4%
all 32 -31.8% -38.3% 34% 16% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.3% 16% -21.4%
10% -44.2% 16% -28.9%
15% -49.6% 12% -35.8%
20% -54.6% 6% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$29 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage361d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Humanitarian airdrops over Gaza by August 8? No 25¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? No 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Humanitarian airdrops over Gaza by August 8? Jul 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 25 $16 −$6 -41%
1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August? Jul 16 $108 +$5 +4%
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th? Jul 16 $27 −$24 -89%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? Jul 12 $37 −$10 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 11 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 11 $38 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: July Jul 11 $31 −$8 -25%
Yoon arrested by July 15? Jul 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $73 −$18 -24%
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? Jul 02 $13 −$2 -16%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jul 01 $371 +$264 +71%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -78%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 27 $416 −$158 -38%
Israel strikes Iran before July? Jun 27 $2 $0 -8%
1,300+ Measles cases in U.S. before July? Jun 26 $7 −$5 -66%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jun 24 $453 −$207 -46%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +42%
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July? Jun 23 $100 −$52 -52%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jun 22 $256 +$12 +5%
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? Jun 22 $50 +$21 +43%
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? BUY No 38¢ $50 214d
Humanitarian airdrops over Gaza by August 8? BUY No 25¢ $29 324d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 324d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records