Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x6967…2671 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$278 (-15%) realized −$282 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate64%28W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$174
politics 39% −$1
other 4% −$7
sports 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 61% 61% +7.3%
≤30d 18 +14.4% +3.5% 61% 61% +7.3%
≤90d 20 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 55% +6.4%
all 44 +1.6% -8.0% 64% 32% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 32% -18.7%
10% -16.8% 32% -26.5%
15% -24.9% 32% -33.6%
20% -32.2% 32% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$37 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses28 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage594d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 49¢ 55¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $38 +$58 +153%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$24 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$23 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$23 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$16 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$21 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$12 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$18 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$16 +71%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 30 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 24 be less than 2, Feb 19 $12 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 19 $20 +$48 +239%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 19 $100 +$91 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Nike say "China" during earnings call? Jan 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Pardon" this week (November 24–30)? Dec 18 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 06 $110 −$110 -100%
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-7 Special Election? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" debuts at #1? Sep 23 $12 $0 +0%
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? Aug 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August? Jul 11 $11 $0 +1%
Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025? Jul 03 $13 −$2 -13%
New Netherlands election announced before Summer Recess? Jun 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 20 $13 $0 +1%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Grizzlies (To Advance) May 05 $13 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 22 $659 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $10 +$7 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $44 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $0 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $18 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $13 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.50 · official $52.00 · 164 history records