Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6960…6d12 politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$15
other 13% −$2
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 74 -0.6% -10.1% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage628d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $49 $0 -0%
RASMR vs. Threadguy Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Claxton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? Jan 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton be Trump's FBI director? Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Dec 19 $0 $0 -3%
Will De’Von Achane be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Nov 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 11 $0 $0 -0%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? Nov 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 12h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $4 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 17d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 18d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $49 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $49 35d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 38d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 39d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 43d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 44d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $51 65d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 66d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 68d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 68d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 90d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 91d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 91d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $51 93d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $51 94d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $51 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records