Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
69 0x695f…ed52 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$63 (+7%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$184
14 days+$177
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$200
other 23% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +44.9% +31.1% 60% 60% +26.9%
≤30d 7 +32.7% +20.1% 57% 57% +19.6%
≤90d 7 +32.7% +20.1% 57% 57% +19.6%
all 7 +32.7% +20.1% 57% 57% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.1% 57% +19.6%
10% +8.6% 57% +8.2%
15% -1.9% 57% -2.3%
20% -11.5% 57% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$24 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$18 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 −$5 -3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $56 +$69 +124%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$76 +78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$62 +61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$43 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $100.00 · 20 history records