Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x695e…160b other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 24% −$21
politics 9% −$6
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$6
world 5% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)243 / 243
History coverage128d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 243 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $382 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $426 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $445 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $112 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $270 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $294 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $270 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 3h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $33 7h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $33 8h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 19h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 22h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 24h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 32h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 35h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 38h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 47h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $16 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1313 history records