Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x695d…0d7c sports 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33,468 (+5%) realized +$36,773 · open −$3,305
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%198W / 125L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,708per market
Trades / day145.4pace
Fees−$3,755est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$23,093
other 2% −$122
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -37.6% -43.5% 39% 16% -37.7%
≤30d 323 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 24% -13.9%
≤90d 323 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 24% -13.9%
all 323 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 24% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 24% -13.9%
10% -24.4% 13% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -31.7% 7% -29.7%
20% -38.4% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,614) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$1,046 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$11,693
Realized+$36,773
Unrealized−$3,305
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses198 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$3,755
Open positions9
Markets (closed)323 / 253
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$2,708
Trades / day145.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 92¢ 96¢ $5,330 $5,529 +$199 (+4%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? No 94¢ 90¢ $4,711 $4,475 −$236 (-5%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ 100¢ $1,357 $1,392 +$34 (+3%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 60¢ 66¢ $145 $158 +$13 (+9%)
Will T1 Esports Academy win LCK CL 2026? Yes 32¢ 65¢ $62 $126 +$63 (+102%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 80¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 9¢ 0¢ $537 $3 −$534 (-99%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 87¢ 0¢ $2,846 $2 −$2,845 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Jun 17 $835 −$835 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $378 −$364 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$48 +15570%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Gam Jun 17 $2,748 −$2,748 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,390 −$2,377 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $915 −$1,106 -121%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Jun 17 $249 −$495 -199%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $36 −$191 -535%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $142 −$141 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Jun 17 $324 −$324 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$66 -96%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,249 −$2,526 -112%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $440 −$348 -79%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $760 −$760 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,021 −$2,021 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $6,113 −$5,923 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $524 −$524 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,717 −$2,668 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $294 −$275 -94%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $411 −$411 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,603 −$1,916 -120%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,125 −$138 -12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $401 −$401 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $815 −$803 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $317 −$249 -78%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 17 $3,226 −$3,226 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $461 −$463 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $256 −$256 -100%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 17 $243 −$243 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $266 −$266 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Jun 17 $719 −$719 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $340 −$348 -102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $7 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $50 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $2 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $8 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $64 2m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $20 5m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $6 6m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $2 7m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $5 10m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $10 12m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $10 12m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $50 12m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $21 12m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $4,609 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $463 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $2 17m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $475 19m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $5,011 19m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $1,225 21m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $147 26m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $13 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $3 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $49 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $37 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $143 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $46 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $2 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $21 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $62 32m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $70 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,693.07 · official $11,693.07 (match) · 3500 history records