Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x695b…e43c crypto 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+4%) realized +$81 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%106W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$149
14 days+$149
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$42
crypto 26% +$116
sports 26% −$4
world 6% −$23
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.6% -15.5% 53% 53% +14.9%
≤30d 67 -18.8% -26.5% 31% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 220 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 44% -7.8%
all 220 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 44% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 44% -7.8%
10% -25.1% 38% -16.7%
15% -32.4% 28% -24.7%
20% -39.0% 24% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses106 / 114
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)220 / 224
History coverage54d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$37 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$25 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $137 +$35 +26%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 +$66 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$5 -15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 04 $3 $0 -10%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $25 −$21 -85%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $20 −$1 -3%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 04 $15 −$9 -60%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Jun 04 $15 −$8 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $25 +$2 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 04 $2 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -56%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in May? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 04 $40 −$24 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 −$1 -13%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 29 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Sijia Wei vs Jiaqi Wang May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $96 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 58¢ $98 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 57¢ $99 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $140 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $71 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $30 16d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.17 · official $80.18 (match) · 538 history records