Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6959…5575 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,379 (-3%) realized −$2,116 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate69%45W / 20L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,008per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6,964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$131
14 days+$255
30 days−$2,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$684
other 6% +$118
crypto 5% −$2,515
politics 2% +$359
finance 1% +$19
sports 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.8% -1.6% 71% 14% -6.9%
≤30d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 9% -15.1%
≤90d 65 -6.8% -15.7% 69% 20% -13.1%
all 65 -6.8% -15.7% 69% 20% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 20% -13.1%
10% -23.7% 11% -21.4%
15% -31.1% 11% -29.0%
20% -37.9% 5% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,085) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$322 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$6,964
Realized−$2,116
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses45 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions10
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,008
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $3,317 $3,469 +$152 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $950 $993 +$43 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $920 $865 −$55 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 53¢ $875 $795 −$80 (-9%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $472 $492 +$20 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 83¢ $206 $198 −$8 (-4%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 87¢ 26¢ $434 $128 −$306 (-71%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $42 $20 −$22 (-52%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $910 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 15 $147 −$75 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $80 +$94 +118%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $1,181 +$82 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $230 −$46 -20%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 13 $920 +$64 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $1,016 +$11 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $964 +$30 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $212 −$23 -11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 05 $140 +$110 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $96 +$7 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3,652 −$2,522 -69%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $676 +$24 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,817 −$46 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 01 $769 +$71 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $846 +$54 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $4,383 +$401 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1,740 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $123 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $596 +$24 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $977 +$133 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $1,768 −$446 -25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $948 +$35 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $61 −$61 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $110 −$70 -64%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $940 +$42 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $2,114 +$98 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,085 +$80 +7%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 20 $346 −$200 -58%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 19 $979 +$16 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $2,446 +$57 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $688 +$12 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,921 +$368 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $3,381 +$116 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 11 $910 −$910 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $3,398 +$67 +2%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? May 10 $10 −$7 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $2,699 +$101 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $730 in May? May 06 $315 +$185 +59%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 05 $42 +$17 +42%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? May 05 $12 −$10 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $703 +$79 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? May 04 $163 +$16 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 04 $905 +$95 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 04 $1,454 +$246 +17%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 04 $2,062 +$238 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 04 $2,621 +$379 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $484 +$40 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 92¢ $184 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $992 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 92¢ $736 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $99 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $285 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $285 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $305 46h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $115 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $164 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $55 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $819 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $286 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $164 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 88¢ $56 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $35 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $936 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 61¢ $40 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 61¢ $79 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $99 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $150 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,963.99 · official $6,963.75 (match) · 495 history records