Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
69 0x6955…2d34 world 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 58L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$16
sports 19% +$4
other 19% −$4
politics 16% −$1
crypto 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 24 +85.1% +67.5% 50% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 68 +32.4% +19.8% 44% 7% -8.9%
all 103 +20.4% +9.0% 44% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 7% -9.1%
10% -1.5% 6% -17.8%
15% -11.0% 5% -25.7%
20% -19.7% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 58
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage530d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $38 +$1 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $111 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $51 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $74 +$6 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $79 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $53 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $3 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $2 +$1 +83%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $4 +$3 +64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $40 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $46 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $93 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $52 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $50 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $39 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $50 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $14 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $31 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $45 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records