Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6955…867a sports 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$667 (-1%) realized −$666 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%195W / 222L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$716est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$315
7 days−$315
14 days−$315
30 days−$1,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$1,348
other 38% +$998
finance 11% −$221
world 5% −$430
crypto 2% −$91
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.6% -29.9% 33% 33% -16.6%
≤30d 86 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 22% -13.3%
≤90d 253 -0.8% -10.2% 48% 35% -11.1%
all 417 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 36% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 36% -10.6%
10% -16.4% 30% -19.2%
15% -24.5% 24% -27.0%
20% -31.9% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$54 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$666
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses195 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$716
Open positions5
Markets (closed)417 / 425
History coverage338d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 417 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $278 $277 −$1 (-0%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $1,448 +$229 +16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $378 −$105 -28%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,781 −$129 -7%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,349 −$307 -23%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$7 +76%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 07 $95 −$84 -88%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $161 −$161 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $159 −$18 -12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $217 −$217 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $458 −$9 -2%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 06 $363 +$3 +1%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $137 −$137 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $228 −$228 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $228 +$172 +75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $405 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $309 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 5? Jun 05 $509 +$4 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $194 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $143 −$143 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $408 −$295 -72%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $226 −$29 -13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 4? Jun 04 $762 −$31 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $350 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $107 +$4 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $480 −$12 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $330 +$10 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $400 −$9 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $309 −$30 -10%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $60 +$40 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $864 +$23 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $898 +$6 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $322 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 02 $287 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $583 +$17 +3%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $88 +$111 +126%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,201 −$83 -7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $791 +$87 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $139 +$110 +79%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $405 −$52 -13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $988 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $434 +$5 +1%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $1,507 +$114 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $296 −$7 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $285 48m
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $599 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $160 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 71¢ $248 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 72¢ $360 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 50¢ $85 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 50¢ $165 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $427 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $50 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $0 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 50¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 52¢ $468 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $300 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $145 4h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 60¢ $95 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A BUY 30¢ $128 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 45¢ $81 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 45¢ $4 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 45¢ $90 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 45¢ $4 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 45¢ $76 4h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 56¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.21 · official $479.21 · 2637 history records