Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6951…dfb6 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day296.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$187
other 29% +$22
sports 5% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.4% -19.8% 51% 31% -8.0%
≤30d 35 -11.4% -19.8% 51% 31% -8.0%
≤90d 35 -11.4% -19.8% 51% 31% -8.0%
all 35 -11.4% -19.8% 51% 31% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover296.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 31% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 11% -16.8%
15% -34.5% 9% -24.8%
20% -40.9% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$36 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day296.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $1,521 +$189 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $1,369 +$133 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $694 +$28 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $142 −$14 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $113 −$21 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $86 +$10 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,252 −$22 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $340 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $73 −$68 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $604 +$127 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $90 −$16 -18%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $319 +$38 +12%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $121 −$33 -27%
ITF Asuncion: Ana Candiotto vs Catalina Delmas Schaerer Jun 24 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $442 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $67 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $34 −$18 -52%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $85 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$24 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $88 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $306 −$24 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$33 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $196 −$184 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $188 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $123 +$60 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $131 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $390 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $390 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $472 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $101 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $17 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $29 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $44 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $24 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.25 · official $269.25 (match) · 581 history records