Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x694d…793a crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+23%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +17.4% +6.2% 68% 68% +14.5%
≤30d 25 +17.4% +6.2% 68% 68% +14.5%
≤90d 25 +17.4% +6.2% 68% 68% +14.5%
all 25 +17.4% +6.2% 68% 68% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 68% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 56% +3.5%
15% -13.2% 40% -6.5%
20% -21.7% 40% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 46¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$10 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.54 · official $45.30 (match) · 57 history records