Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x694d…9aad crypto 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,495 (+4%) realized +$2,982 · open −$1,487
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%147W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$8,488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days+$5,157
14 days+$5,157
30 days+$5,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$2,228
crypto 34% −$2,214
other 29% +$4,774
world 2% −$728
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +29.4% +17.0% 50% 25% +62.4%
≤30d 8 +29.4% +17.0% 50% 25% +62.4%
≤90d 8 +29.4% +17.0% 50% 25% +62.4%
all 367 -5.7% -14.7% 40% 37% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 37% -5.5%
10% -22.9% 33% -14.6%
15% -30.3% 29% -22.8%
20% -37.2% 27% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$55 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$8,488
Realized+$2,982
Unrealized−$1,487
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses147 / 220
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions6
Markets (closed)367 / 374
History coverage123d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $3,975 $3,992 +$17 (+0%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $2,000 $2,017 +$17 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $1,000 $982 −$18 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $500 $487 −$13 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score No 41¢ 0¢ $1,500 $2 −$1,498 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $937 −$38 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $103 −$16 -16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $1,014 −$354 -35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,124 +$5,633 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Jun 22 $10 +$25 +246%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 10 $300 −$295 -98%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-02-28? Mar 04 $3 +$1 +20%
Spread: FC Südtirol (-2.5) Mar 04 $5 $0 +2%
Penguins vs. Rangers Mar 04 $3 +$3 +108%
Rockets vs. Heat Mar 04 $3 +$4 +133%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 04 $5 +$3 +61%
Bruins vs. Flyers Mar 04 $4 +$4 +92%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $500 +$117 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 04 $396 −$390 -98%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $500 −$500 -100%
SC Bastia vs. FC Annecy: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $1 +$1 +47%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $2 $0 +25%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $2 +$1 +49%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 28 $1 +$2 +156%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $8 −$4 -53%
Jets vs. Ducks Feb 28 $7 −$2 -23%
Knicks vs. Bucks Feb 28 $8 −$1 -11%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Feb 28 $7 +$1 +14%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Feb 28 $7 +$2 +35%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $13 +$2 +17%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $18 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 28 $50 +$83 +167%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-27? Feb 28 $95 +$120 +127%
Canucks vs. Kraken Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Predators vs. Stars Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Flames vs. Kings Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Will SC Bastia vs. FC Annecy end in a draw? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner Feb 27 $2 +$7 +426%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 27 $47 +$16 +35%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 27 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 55¢ $900 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $937 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 34¢ $510 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 9¢ $87 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $512 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1,016 6h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 53¢ $20 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $509 22h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $2,532 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,027 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 45¢ $660 22h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 46h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2,025 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,238 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 66¢ $1,014 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,885 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $300 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $396 113d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY PARIVISION 81¢ $500 115d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 59¢ $500 115d
Canucks vs. Kraken BUY Canucks 41¢ $5 117d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Heat 43¢ $3 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,488.20 · official $8,509.24 (match) · 1104 history records