Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6947…1552 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$26 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day98.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$35
politics 6% $0
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -17.3%
≤30d 55 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -17.3%
≤90d 55 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -17.3%
all 55 -8.4% -17.2% 47% 47% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 47% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 45% -25.2%
15% -32.3% 40% -32.5%
20% -39.0% 35% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)55 / 61
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day98.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage LuneX Gaming 33¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs The Kafe (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 Group Stage The Kafe 15¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 55¢ 4¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-94%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 46¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Geekay Esports 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$10 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 18m
Overwatch: Dallas Fuel vs The Kafe (BO3) - OCS North America Stage 2 G BUY The Kafe 15¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.58 · official $35.00 · 162 history records