Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6947…8ee5 crypto 1230 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate70%858W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$11
14 days−$0
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +2.2% -7.5% 77% 50% -9.2%
≤30d 454 -0.6% -10.1% 73% 45% -10.4%
≤90d 1230 -1.0% -10.4% 70% 42% -10.4%
all 1230 -1.0% -10.4% 70% 42% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 42% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 12% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses858 / 372
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1230 / 1230
History coverage83d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1230 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$14 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $28 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $28 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $28 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $28 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $28 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2464 history records