Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x6943…7462
politics · 242 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,835 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,370 · open +$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,792
Realized−$7,370
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses141 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions20
Markets (closed)218 / 242
History coverage555d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 20 History 218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$128
14 days+$185
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 94¢ 99¢ $374 $397 +$23 (+6%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR? No 90¢ 95¢ $360 $382 +$22 (+6%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 95¢ 96¢ $286 $289 +$3 (+1%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR? No 96¢ 93¢ $288 $279 −$9 (-3%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 36¢ 68¢ $69 $131 +$62 (+89%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL? No 87¢ 76¢ $96 $84 −$12 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR + UDMR? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+300%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $538 +$62 +12%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $38 +$7 +18%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $160 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +68%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -2%
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 09 $298 −$2 -1%
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian Jun 07 $14 +$30 +214%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $66 +$10 +15%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 07 $33 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romania Jun 05 $17 +$4 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $183 +$6 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $470 +$30 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $307 +$6 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included May 26 $4 +$1 +29%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? May 25 $10 −$3 -36%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 12 $116 +$47 +40%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $699 −$699 -100%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $699 −$699 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 08 $699 −$699 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $699 −$699 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $699 −$699 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $697 −$697 -100%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $696 −$696 -100%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $695 −$695 -100%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $683 −$683 -100%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $674 −$674 -100%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $673 −$673 -100%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $661 −$661 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 08 $448 −$448 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $184 +$16 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 80% −$7,319
other 11% +$135
sports 5% −$122
world 3% −$31
crypto 1% +$37
tech 0% +$6
weather 0% −$10
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 57m
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $513 1h
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR? BUY No 96¢ $288 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $13 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $12 1h
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + USR + UDMR? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $27 1h
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $23 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 98¢ $196 1h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 98¢ $93 1h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 89¢ $24 2h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 89¢ $136 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 41¢ $4 10h
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR? BUY No 90¢ $360 11h
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 96¢ $96 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerl BUY 9¢ $4 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar BUY 73¢ $40 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +17.6% +6.4% 71% 62% -1.6%
≤30d 33 +15.3% +4.3% 76% 58% -3.0%
≤90d 52 -19.9% -27.5% 54% 40% -77.0%
all 218 -1.0% -10.4% 65% 42% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 42% -28.3%
10% -19.0% 25% -35.2%
15% -26.8% 16% -41.5%
20% -34.0% 10% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,792.21 · official $1,832.21 · 1847 history records