Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x6942…6da1 other 39 markets active 11h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$20
other 27% −$6
sports 6% −$3
culture 6% −$2
crypto 6% −$3
finance 6% −$1
tech 6% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$981) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage82d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $975 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 14 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 13 $971 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $962 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $944 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 22 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 21 $934 −$12 -1%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 19 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $996 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Mar 27 $101 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 27 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? SELL No 100¢ $33 10h
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 10h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 11h
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 11h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 11h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 11h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 11h
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $35 2d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $61 3d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $738 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $252 3d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $992 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,013 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $993 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records