Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
69 0x693f…02f0 politics 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$18
politics 34% −$15
sports 14% −$2
economics 5% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage134d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $259 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $215 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $275 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $271 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 05 $280 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $737 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $442 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $477 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $195 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $273 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $468 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $265 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $442 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 43h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 43h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 47h
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 11d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 29d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $259 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $259 31d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 31d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 32d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 32d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 32d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $241 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 418 history records