Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
69 0x693c…c37b other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$465 (-11%) realized −$668 · open +$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$313
crypto 2% +$71
sports 1% −$50
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 67% -22.3%
≤30d 18 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 67% -22.3%
≤90d 18 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 67% -22.3%
all 18 +2.5% -7.2% 67% 67% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 67% -22.3%
10% -16.1% 56% -29.7%
15% -24.2% 56% -36.5%
20% -31.7% 39% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$248 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$903
Realized−$668
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $400 $606 +$206 (+52%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$103 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $193 +$87 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $239 −$236 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $171 +$65 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$82 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 +$28 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $687 +$346 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$37 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 15h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $280 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $91 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $239 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $161 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $163 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $81 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.77 · official $902.77 (match) · 69 history records