Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x693a…cf49 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-13%) realized −$196 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$122
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$141
other 34% −$23
world 15% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -30.9% -37.5% 35% 29% -28.5%
≤30d 98 -20.7% -28.2% 44% 42% -27.1%
≤90d 98 -20.7% -28.2% 44% 42% -27.1%
all 98 -20.7% -28.2% 44% 42% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 42% -27.1%
10% -35.1% 38% -34.1%
15% -41.4% 32% -40.5%
20% -47.1% 23% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 55
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 44¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $97 −$15 -15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$9 +82%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $11 +$13 +121%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$4 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $35 +$5 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $67 −$32 -49%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +76%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$9 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14 −$4 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$4 -20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $6 −$3 -53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$2 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$13 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 −$10 -64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$27 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $3 +$1 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -89%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 09 $4 +$2 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$2 -42%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 09 $6 +$3 +51%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +29%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $3 −$2 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 45¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 45¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 45¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 36¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 36¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 73¢ $36 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 26¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $10 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 40¢ $28 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $50 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $64 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $22 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $65 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 98¢ $19 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 98¢ $1 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $11 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 17¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $5 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $501 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $35 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $8 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $553.86 · official $553.86 (match) · 212 history records