Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6939…440a world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$4
other 27% +$4
politics 8% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 7% -8.6%
all 51 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -8.3%
10% -19.0% 2% -17.1%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage456d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $23 +$5 +22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -46%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $12 +$5 +37%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 15 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 03 $2 $0 +12%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $48 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 40h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $20 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $28 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $13 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $44.02 (match) · 158 history records