Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6937…b9ed sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-7%) realized −$205 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%56W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$177
14 days−$195
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$87
other 15% −$274
weather 1% −$7
politics 1% −$11
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -5.6% -14.6% 86% 21% -15.2%
≤30d 79 -15.0% -23.1% 71% 28% -15.5%
≤90d 81 -15.3% -23.3% 69% 27% -15.5%
all 81 -15.3% -23.3% 69% 27% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 27% -15.5%
10% -30.7% 16% -23.6%
15% -37.4% 12% -31.0%
20% -43.5% 9% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses56 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)81 / 88
History coverage40d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 81¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 14¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $140 +$5 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $83 +$2 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $80 +$5 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $162 +$1 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $176 +$1 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $144 +$1 +1%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $168 +$5 +3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $167 +$2 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $159 +$6 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $150 +$21 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $255 −$199 -78%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $335 +$4 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $275 +$11 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$53 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $52 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $42 +$10 +24%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $36 +$4 +11%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $33 +$2 +5%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $24 +$11 +47%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 98¢ $100 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 99¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $30 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 92¢ $30 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 94¢ $50 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $43 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 25h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $40 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 93¢ $30 25h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 99¢ $162 33h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $1 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 35h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 98¢ $1 38h
ITF Klosters: Nicolas Parizzia vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 91¢ $1 42h
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels BUY Louis Wessels 95¢ $1 42h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena BUY Ana Giraldi Requena 97¢ $1 42h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $1 42h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $176 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $144 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $30 2d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $0 2d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $168 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $167 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $159 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 47¢ $3 3d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.79 · official $39.79 (match) · 172 history records