Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6934…1f69 crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day124.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% $0
other 16% −$5
sports 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 32% -17.6%
≤30d 34 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 32% -17.6%
≤90d 34 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 32% -17.6%
all 34 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 32% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 32% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 18% -25.5%
15% -29.5% 15% -32.7%
20% -36.4% 9% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day124.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1068%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records