Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6934…27e5 politics 252 markets active 3h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%31W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$6
other 25% −$8
politics 22% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
economics 6% $0
culture 4% $0
world 3% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 49 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 252 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses31 / 221
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage172d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $31 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $63 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $74 $0 -1%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $99 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 24 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $30 2h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $30 8h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 12d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 12d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 23d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $31 36d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $32 61d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $32 63d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $31 63d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $31 63d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $32 63d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 63d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $29 63d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $29 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 98¢ $32 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 97¢ $32 65d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $23 65d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $23 65d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $22 65d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $22 65d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $26 65d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $26 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 66d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $32 66d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $32 67d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $24 67d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $24 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 836 history records