Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6932…5f93 crypto 1096 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,404 (-1%) realized −$2,395 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%1048W / 39L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$452
7 days−$1,472
14 days−$1,359
30 days−$1,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,574
sports 8% +$39
other 2% −$880
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 2% -11.7%
≤30d 716 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 1% -10.4%
≤90d 1087 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 1% -10.3%
all 1087 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$154 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$2,395
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1048 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1087 / 1096
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$270
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1087 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 82¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 72¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Yes 21¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$10 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $347 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $396 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $149 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$1 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $251 +$33 +13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $251 −$250 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $213 +$37 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $347 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $249 +$30 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $346 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $203 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $346 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 10m
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $4 40m
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $1 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $69 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $50 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $248 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $248 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $248 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $248 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $248 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $347 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $248 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $248 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $50 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $396 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $196 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.70 · official $179.00 (match) · 3500 history records