Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x692e…21d8
crypto · 51 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$33 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage200d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down on January 29? Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa India 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on January 29? Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
No airdrop in 2025? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 19? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $8 −$8 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England Feb 22 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 19? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 18 $5 $0 +9%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 30 $8 +$3 +37%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 30 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 30 $9 −$1 -11%
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 29? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 28 $1 $0 -25%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 4AM ET Jan 28 $7 +$27 +366%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 24 $1 $0 -23%
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 25 $1 +$1 +58%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 25 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 25? Nov 26 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$14
other 11% −$15
sports 10% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY India 83¢ $8 110d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England SELL England 100¢ $8 110d
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs England BUY England 56¢ $5 111d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 113d
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) SELL India 100¢ $6 114d
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) BUY India 92¢ $5 114d
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 134d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $11 134d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 134d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 134d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 134d
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 134d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 134d
XRP Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 134d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.3% -17.9% 64% 45% -15.0%
≤30d 11 -9.3% -17.9% 64% 45% -15.0%
≤90d 11 -9.3% -17.9% 64% 45% -15.0%
all 51 -50.6% -55.3% 27% 22% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 22% -27.1%
10% -59.5% 18% -34.1%
15% -63.5% 16% -40.5%
20% -67.0% 12% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records