Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x692c…b351 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3
politics 18% +$1
other 17% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 36% 7% -8.9%
all 40 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage272d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $50 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $45 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $46 +$4 +8%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 +17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $5 −$1 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $39 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 05 $24 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $50 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $50 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $50 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $46 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.27 · official $24.98 · 149 history records