Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:49:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

69
0x692a…e65f
weather · 1493 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$349 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$349 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$92
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1278 / 210
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1488 / 1493
History coverage90d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 7 History 1488 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$30
14 days+$26
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 96¢ 92¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 93¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5) CR Flamengo 99¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? No 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 26? No 98¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5) Brighton & Hove Albion FC 97¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? No 96¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +3%
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-2.5) Jun 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$1 +5%
Spread: CD Castellón (-2.5) Jun 09 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 7? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 64% −$121
sports 28% +$61
crypto 5% −$59
other 4% −$229
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $20 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY No 96¢ $20 15h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $53 16h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 31h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $20 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $20 39h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Spread: UD Las Palmas (-2.5) BUY Málaga CF 99¢ $54 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? BUY No 92¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $20 3d
Spread: CD Castellón (-2.5) BUY UD Almería 95¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.3% -7.4% 94% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 318 -1.8% -11.1% 88% 1% -12.8%
≤90d 1488 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 11% -10.6%
all 1488 -1.3% -10.7% 86% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 11% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 6% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.9%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.05 · official $92.05 (match) · 3500 history records