Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
69 0x6927…21ad other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$831 (+6%) realized +$753 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR81%break-even
Win rate82%69W / 15L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$1,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$24
14 days+$521
30 days+$998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$872
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +81%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.4% -6.5% 81% 75% -9.1%
≤30d 52 +34.0% +21.2% 87% 85% -0.0%
≤90d 84 +21.6% +10.1% 82% 81% -3.8%
all 84 +21.6% +10.1% 82% 81% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 81% -3.8%
10% -0.5% 50% -13.0%
15% -10.1% 24% -21.4%
20% -18.9% 10% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$132 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,008
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses69 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)84 / 87
History coverage57d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 90¢ $530 $650 +$120 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $328 +$65 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $328 −$326 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 +$126 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $273 +$149 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $256 +$55 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $256 +$37 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $247 +$64 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $231 +$28 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $230 +$39 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $852 +$52 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $333 −$330 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $259 +$141 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $327 −$325 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $310 +$70 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $281 +$44 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $283 +$135 +48%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $271 +$46 +17%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $252 +$65 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $241 +$35 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $231 +$49 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $231 +$31 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $211 +$42 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $204 +$62 +30%
Exact Score: Georgia 2 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 06 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $181 +$29 +16%
Exact Score: Georgia 1 - 0 Bahrain? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $181 +$62 +34%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $71 −$21 -29%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $161 +$55 +34%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $121 +$46 +38%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $121 +$21 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $101 +$20 +20%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $7 +$16 +226%
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $101 +$36 +36%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $131 +$34 +26%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $121 +$29 +24%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $121 +$37 +31%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $100 +$13 +13%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $7 +$4 +55%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $138 +$22 +16%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $100 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $267 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $267 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $328 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $328 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $273 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $256 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $256 38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $247 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $231 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $230 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $852 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $333 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $259 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $327 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $310 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 67¢ $283 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $281 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $271 8d
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 79¢ $252 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $241 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $231 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $231 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $211 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 76¢ $204 11d
Exact Score: Georgia 2 - 0 Bahrain? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12d
Exact Score: Georgia 1 - 0 Bahrain? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 12d
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 86¢ $181 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 74¢ $181 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.43 · official $1,008.43 (match) · 189 history records