Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

69 0x6926…f046 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$119 (-5%) realized −$119 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR6%break-even

Win rate25%4W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +6%

net ROI/market (all)-17.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	+0.5%	-9.1%	100%	0%	-9.1%
≤90d	4	-49.9%	-54.7%	25%	0%	-40.6%
all	16	-8.6%	-17.3%	25%	6%	-14.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.3%	6%	-14.3%
10%	-25.2%	6%	-22.5%
15%	-32.5%	6%	-30.0%
20%	-39.1%	6%	-36.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

75% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late -15% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized−$119

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses4 / 12

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage132d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	93¢	93¢	$42	$42	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Jun 06	$80	$0	+0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Apr 28	$2	−$2	-100%
Devils vs. Red Wings	Apr 14	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 31	$305	$0	-0%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes	Mar 22	$109	+$88	+81%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Mar 16	$195	$0	+0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 13	$183	$0	-0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	Mar 11	$199	$0	-0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Mar 08	$197	$0	-0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March?	Mar 05	$195	−$7	-4%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Feb 27	$197	$0	-0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 24	$3	$0	-8%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	Feb 19	$198	+$2	+1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Feb 17	$198	$0	-0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Feb 15	$6	$0	-5%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Feb 13	$9	$0	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	BUY No	93¢	$42	1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	SELL No	93¢	$81	17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY No	92¢	$80	33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	57d
Devils vs. Red Wings	BUY Red Wings	57¢	$200	75d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL No	97¢	$305	84d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY No	97¢	$305	87d
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes	BUY Miami Hurricanes	55¢	$109	95d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	98¢	$195	99d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	97¢	$97	102d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	97¢	$97	102d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	91¢	$183	102d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	91¢	$183	103d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$198	105d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$199	106d
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$197	107d
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$197	110d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March?	SELL No	94¢	$188	111d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March?	BUY No	97¢	$195	112d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$197	117d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$197	118d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	120d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$3	121d
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol	BUY No	99¢	$198	126d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL No	99¢	$198	126d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	99¢	$198	128d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	2¢	$6	129d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	2¢	$6	130d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	3¢	$8	131d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	3¢	$9	131d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.98 · official $41.98 (match) · 41 history records