Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
69 0x6923…7849 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+6%) realized +$189 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate68%79W / 37L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$57
14 days+$78
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$20
sports 8% +$11
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 44% -6.1%
≤30d 116 +2.3% -7.5% 68% 47% -9.2%
≤90d 116 +2.3% -7.5% 68% 47% -9.2%
all 116 +2.3% -7.5% 68% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 47% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 38% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 28% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses79 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage29d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$38 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $109 +$100 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $146 +$3 +2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$30 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $41 10h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $20 10h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $209 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.34 · official $37.34 (match) · 252 history records