Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x6923…fa5b other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$39
sports 22% −$18
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$5
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage136d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 25 $124 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $247 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $310 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $732 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $752 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $360 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 3h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 4h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 5h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 7h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 9h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 13h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 14h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 16h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 17h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 20h
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 22h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $35 22h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $13 23h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 26h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 29h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 30h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $48 35h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $48 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 40h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 41h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 43h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 45h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 47h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1415 history records