Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x691f…877a crypto 605 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (283 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,888 (-25%) realized −$3,842 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%249W / 510L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day282.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (283 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 687 -30.9% -37.5% 30% 30% -7.7%
≤30d 759 -19.5% -27.1% 33% 33% +4.0%
≤90d 759 -19.5% -27.1% 33% 33% +4.0%
all 759 -19.5% -27.1% 33% 33% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover282.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 33% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 33% -6.0%
15% -40.5% 30% -15.1%
20% -46.3% 21% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$13 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$3,842
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses249 / 510
Open positions1
Markets (closed)759 / 605
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day282.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 33¢ 12¢ $74 $28 −$46 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $43 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $13 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.12 · official $28.12 (match) · 3500 history records