Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x691e…5e55 other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$181
politics 37% −$19
sports 14% +$38
world 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$267
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 -0.7% -10.2% 4% 1% -9.8%
all 150 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage129d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $181 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 27 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $192 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $241 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $437 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $244 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $232 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $488 +$196 +40%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $281 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $217 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $220 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $255 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $228 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 20d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $181 20d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $181 22d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $239 22d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $239 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $220 24d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $220 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $192 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $192 25d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $183 26d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $224 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $224 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $241 27d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $241 27d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $261 28d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $261 29d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 29d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 29d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 30d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 31d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 31d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $195 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 443 history records