Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x691c…ac5d other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%26W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
other 28% −$4
sports 5% +$5
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 55 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -24.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -31.7% 2% -26.0%
20% -38.4% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses26 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage472d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $88 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $89 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $27 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $110 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $45 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 22 $11 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will another country be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Gra May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $14 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 29 $4 $0 +10%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele Apr 29 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 28 $13 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 3m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $47 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $47 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $47 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $0 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $42 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $33 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $9 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $21 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $21 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $40 44h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $47 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $45 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records