Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x691b…82e0 crypto 383 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$258 (+5%) realized +$259 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%267W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$57
14 days−$16
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$41
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 +0.1% -9.4% 65% 65% -10.8%
≤30d 320 -0.4% -9.9% 68% 66% -10.2%
≤90d 382 -0.7% -10.1% 70% 66% -10.3%
all 382 -0.7% -10.1% 70% 66% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 66% -10.3%
10% -18.7% 55% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 37% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$259
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses267 / 115
Open positions1
Markets (closed)382 / 383
History coverage42d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 63¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$13 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $56 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$17 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$14 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$23 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $58 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $28 +$12 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.20 · official $24.20 (match) · 1005 history records