Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
69 0x691b…0944 other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%55W / 96L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$32
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$38
politics 24% $0
other 24% −$1
sports 12% −$2
finance 3% $0
economics 2% −$5
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 14% -5.6%
≤30d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 4% -8.2%
≤90d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 1% -9.1%
all 151 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses55 / 96
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage361d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $131 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $150 +$25 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $203 +$5 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $93 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $98 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $191 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $99 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $193 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $42 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $10 $0 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $139 +$2 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $4 −$1 -18%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $90 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $88 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $196 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $101 −$5 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $188 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $90 +$2 +2%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $17 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $131 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $121 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $96 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $69 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $27 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $61 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $45 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $102 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $82 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $93 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $22 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $80 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 652 history records