Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
69 0x691a…332f crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$307 (+1%) realized +$297 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%71W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$96
14 days+$161
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$304
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 66 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 0% -8.7%
all 72 +0.5% -9.1% 99% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×6096.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×432845.56 per $1 lost it wins $432845.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1,263
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses71 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage96d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,249 $1,258 +$10 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,239 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,201 +$39 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,192 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,184 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,174 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,165 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $752 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $402 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,147 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,131 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,127 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,125 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,115 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,089 +$26 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,059 +$30 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,048 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,044 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,040 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,030 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,020 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,003 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $997 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $1,250 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $1,250 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $406 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $179 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $654 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $257 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $944 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,023 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $158 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $840 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $107 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $79 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,165 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $56 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $192 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $173 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $573 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $815 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $332 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $519 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $612 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $621 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $504 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,263.46 · official $1,263.46 (match) · 181 history records